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7-day results · updated weekly

Does this actually make money?

Here is what our AI recommended 7 days ago and how much money it made.

If You invested $10,000 last week
You could've made +$236.64 (+2.37%) today.
Based on 20 AI picks made 7 days ago, weighted by how confident the market was. Simulation only.
1. Read the market
We checked Kalshi prediction-market sentiment 7 days ago.
2. Pick the stock
Our AI picked the stock most likely to benefit.
3. Measure today
We measured how those picks performed a week later.

Every pick, in plain English

What the market said · what we picked · what happened.

What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 28% chance on: "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?"
What stock we picked
VIX Buy
Price then → now
$15.20 ➔ $17.48
+$121.55
on $810 invested
Why we picked this: Policy uncertainty tends to boost VIX.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 74% chance on: "Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?"
What stock we picked
XLF Buy
Price then → now
$46.80 ➔ $48.44
+$29.57
on $845 invested
Why we picked this: Policy uncertainty tends to boost XLF.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 53% chance on: "What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?"
What stock we picked
XLE Buy
Price then → now
$92.40 ➔ $95.17
+$14.48
on $483 invested
Why we picked this: Stronger fossil-fuel demand outlook is bullish for XLE.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 53% chance on: "What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?"
What stock we picked
XOM Buy
Price then → now
$118.50 ➔ $122.06
+$14.48
on $483 invested
Why we picked this: Stronger fossil-fuel demand outlook is bullish for XOM.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 53% chance on: "What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?"
What stock we picked
USO Buy
Price then → now
$78.10 ➔ $80.44
+$14.48
on $483 invested
Why we picked this: Stronger fossil-fuel demand outlook is bullish for USO.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 36% chance on: "Who will Trump pardon?"
What stock we picked
GEO Buy
Price then → now
$24.60 ➔ $25.09
+$13.45
on $672 invested
Why we picked this: Our model links this market's move to upside for GEO.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 33% chance on: "Which party will win the next UK general election?"
What stock we picked
VIX Buy
Price then → now
$15.20 ➔ $15.50
+$14.48
on $724 invested
Why we picked this: Policy uncertainty tends to boost VIX.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 13% chance on: "US meets its climate goals?"
What stock we picked
TRV Buy
Price then → now
$232.10 ➔ $234.42
+$10.69
on $1069 invested
Why we picked this: Slower climate progress is bullish for TRV.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 13% chance on: "US meets its climate goals?"
What stock we picked
XLU Buy
Price then → now
$73.50 ➔ $74.23
+$10.69
on $1069 invested
Why we picked this: Slower climate progress is bullish for XLU.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 43% chance on: "How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?"
What stock we picked
VIX Buy
Price then → now
$15.20 ➔ $15.28
+$2.76
on $552 invested
Why we picked this: Policy uncertainty tends to boost VIX.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 20% chance on: "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?"
What stock we picked
NVDA Short
Price then → now
$178.40 ➔ $178.40
$0.00
on $0 invested
Why we picked this: An AI IPO delay tends to hurt incumbents like NVDA.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 20% chance on: "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?"
What stock we picked
SMH Short
Price then → now
$268.70 ➔ $268.70
$0.00
on $0 invested
Why we picked this: An AI IPO delay tends to hurt incumbents like SMH.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 20% chance on: "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?"
What stock we picked
MSFT Short
Price then → now
$452.30 ➔ $452.30
$0.00
on $0 invested
Why we picked this: An AI IPO delay tends to hurt incumbents like MSFT.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 39% chance on: "Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?"
What stock we picked
FXI Buy
Price then → now
$31.90 ➔ $31.90
$0.00
on $621 invested
Why we picked this: Space-race momentum is bullish for FXI.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 39% chance on: "Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?"
What stock we picked
XLI Buy
Price then → now
$141.20 ➔ $141.20
$0.00
on $621 invested
Why we picked this: Space-race momentum is bullish for XLI.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 58% chance on: "2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)"
What stock we picked
VIX Buy
Price then → now
$15.20 ➔ $15.20
$0.00
on $569 invested
Why we picked this: Policy uncertainty tends to boost VIX.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 83% chance on: "How much will the US acquire Greenland for?"
What stock we picked
MNA Buy
Price then → now
$33.40 ➔ $33.07
-$10.00
on $1000 invested
Why we picked this: Large sovereign M&A odds are bullish for MNA.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 74% chance on: "Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?"
What stock we picked
GEO Short
Price then → now
$24.60 ➔ $23.74
$0.00
on $0 invested
Why we picked this: Policy uncertainty tends to weigh on GEO.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 47% chance on: "Will China obtain an EUV machine?"
What stock we picked
FXI Short
Price then → now
$31.90 ➔ $30.62
$0.00
on $0 invested
Why we picked this: Tighter China chip access usually pressures FXI.
What the market said (7 days ago)
People bet a 47% chance on: "Will China obtain an EUV machine?"
What stock we picked
XLI Short
Price then → now
$141.20 ➔ $135.55
$0.00
on $0 invested
Why we picked this: Tighter China chip access usually pressures XLI.
See this week's live picks

Simulated returns only. Not investment advice. Prices shown are illustrative of the direction and magnitude implied by Kalshi probability moves.